Will Somali Pirates Return if EU Stops Patrolling Soon?

Ahoy mateys, it's back to the Gulf of Aden for us in this post. The collapse of a functioning government in Somalia led to a period when many turned to piracy as a lucrative livelihood in the absence of other viable sources of income. Americans--people who top the global list of ignoramuses about what's going on in the world--even focused some attention on the issue with the kidnap of Captain Richard Phillips of the MV Maersk Alabama. They even made a movie about it (just don't ask them where Maersk is headquartered since the average Yank probably can't find Denmark on the map, let alone Somalia.)

In any event, EU-led efforts to patrol these lawless seas eventually bore fruit, with piracy receding to far less alarming levels in the last year. With EU Navfor's mandate winding up in 2014, however, there is concern that the pirates will come back strong once the cats are away. Back in the UK, Labour's Shadow Foreign Secretary John Spellar has voiced this very concern. (For non-Brits, a "shadow" minister is someone from the opposition whose portfolio is similar to the "real" minister's except s/he is obviously not in power.) From the industry publication Lloyd's List:

A senior UK official has urged the shipping industry to lobby to extend the mandate of EU Navfor’s Operation Atalanta beyond its 2014 mandate deadline.

The shadow foreign and commonwealth office minister John Spellar warned that “EU Navfor’s Operation Atalanta will be renegotiated in 2014 and it is not clear whether it will be maintained”.

Addressing the Security in Complex Environments conference in London, Mr Spellar revealed that politicians had complained that multiple forces patrolling the high-risk area duplicate each others’ efforts rather than complement each other. “There are voices in the back benches that question why we need UK co-operation when there is [North Atlantic Treaty Organisation] involvement,” he said.

Unsurprisingly, most shipping industry interests are lobbying for EU Navfor to stick around:

Mr Speller warned that some government departments are slow to react to changing circumstances and urged the shipping industry to lobby the government as soon as possible to extend Operation Atalanta. “It is important to get [government] engaged at the earliest possible stage,” he said.

A representative from Mitsui OSK Lines based in London said operators needed EU Navfor forces to stay in place. “If we lose that capability the pirates will come back. It’s as simple as that,” he said.

I think the chances are good that EU Navfor will gain an extended mandate in 2014. While the reduction in piracy is also due to a host of other factors alike more commercial vessels having armed guards and designating traffic zones where pirates are less likely to be successful, European patrolling is clearly valued by industry players. Moreover, I am not convinced that playing Britney Spears music [?!] will drive the evildoers away. 

Ops, I hope they don't do it again.

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Why (They Say) Somali Piracy is Falling

 ...or so they say. Given my nationality, I have been particularly interested in this issue. Providing between one-fifth to one-fourth of all seafarers depending on your source, the Philippines has been particularly hard-hit by Somali piracy since its seafarers literally have a 1-in-5 to 1-in-4 chance of being on board a vessel hijacked in the Gulf of Aden. However, including even the BushBama years, all bad things must come to and end. Just as maritime piracy has been curbed in the traditional hotspot of the Malacca Straits due to littoral states engaging in more vigilant patrolling of these waters, so too does it seem that piracy has been reduced in the now-notorious Gulf of Aden. Instead of Southeast Asian nations doing the patrolling, however, it's been European ones under the command of EU-Navfor and its Operation Atalanta to keep piracy in check.

EU Navfor Rear Admiral Duncan Potts (seconded from the Royal Navy--history suggests they know a thing or two about piracy) gives a number of reasons for this decrease:

• The deployment of armed private security guards on board ships who have been 100% successful in deterring or defeating attacks;
• Better management practice by shipping companies, such as hardening their vessels or taking evasive action;
• Pre-emptive action by combined navies in the region, helping to ensure that pirates do not get out of their anchorages;
• A change in Somalia at national and local level, with Somalis far less tolerant of pirates.

Me? I am not entirely sure if this phenomenon is done and dusted. While the cost-benefit ratio of piracy has risen significantly as of late, long-term development of Somalia needs to occur to deter this line of livelihood going forward. In accomplish that, you need to accomplish a number of things that will be no small feat such as (1) establishing rule of law in the coastal regions especially and (2) creating viable sources of livelihood aside from fishing and piracy. Interestingly, Filipino seamen have been treated relatively well since they are viewed by the Somali pirates as victims of circumstance--poor people just like themselves as opposed to Europeans or others.

To be sure, Somali fishers-turned-pirates still complain that it was European overfishing in their waters that has made them lose their traditional livelihoods and turn to yo-ho-hoeing. I tried to investigate this evocative environmental notion sometime ago, but there is no data comparing fish stocks off the Somali coast over the years that could provide empirical evidence for such claims. (Please get in touch with me if you do!) So, what we are left with are counterarguments from those encouraging deterrence that other factors play a far larger role.

For instance, see this interview of Patricia OBrien, UN Under Secretary-General for Legal Affairs ont he matter:

Q: Many fisherman impoverished by declining fish stocks turn to piracy. Will the Yeosu Project [see here], which aims to build the capacity of emerging countries to address such issues, contribute to combating piracy?

A: The initiative taken by the Republic of Korea is commendable, and constitutes an important part of the regional and international efforts that must be undertaken by States Parties to UNCLOS and to the 1995 Agreement relating to the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks to promote the conservation of fish stocks, both within and beyond the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ, a nation’s official territorial waters).

However, the root causes of piracy do not only lie in the mismanagement of fish stocks and the depletion of resources from seas and oceans. If the trends regarding piracy off the coast of Somalia are to provide any guidance, whereby pirates have expanded their areas of operation and acquired heavier artillery, allowing them to attack larger ships further out at sea, major shipping routes such as the Strait of Malacca should continue to be monitored closely.

And cue "Rhymin' and Stealin'" for old times sake...

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CSR: From 'Blood Diamonds' to 'Conflict Minerals'

In 2006, there was a movie entitled "Blood Diamonds" starring Leonardo DiCaprio (before he became blubberized and American-sized) that brought popular attention to the titular cause. For those of you covering corporate social responsibility (CSR), the issues should be familiar: Repressive governments and militiamen have been accused of using proceeds from the mining of these diamonds to fund their bloody conflicts in Africa. Nowadays, the cause celebre is the Democratic Republic of Congo. 

As it turns out, diamonds are but one product of extractive industries which have been identified in funding African conflicts. The problem that many American firms perceive with proposed Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) laws is that many of these other minerals are found in everyday products you find at the strip mall--the archetypal symbol of American consumerism: canned goods, lightbulbs, jewelry, MP3 players, flat-screen TVs and so on:

Big retailers including Target and Wal-Mart may largely escape a costly new rule that requires U.S.-listed companies to disclose whether their goods contain so-called conflict minerals that are blamed for fueling violence in central Africa. Retailers lobbied to be exempted from the requirement, which will affect manufacturers of a range of products, including smartphones, light bulbs and footwear.

The Securities and Exchange Commission had proposed an earlier version of the rule that would have applied to retailers carrying products sold under their own brand names (store brands alike Archer Farms at Target or Kirkland at Costco), but which are typically produced by outside contractors. On Wednesday, however, the SEC voted 3-2 to adopt a final rule that would exempt companies that don't exert direct control over the manufacture of such products.

The rule, which was mandated by the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, have been a source of friction between the SEC and companies ever since the law was passed in 2010. Companies have said the requirement would be burdensome and expensive. Indeed, the SEC on Wednesday sharply raised its estimate of the rule's financial impact, saying it would cost companies a total of $3 billion to $4 billion upfront, plus more than $200 million a year. The SEC initially had said the cost of compliance would be just $71 million. It said it revised its estimate based on comments from the business community and others.The SEC estimates around 6,000 U.S. and foreign companies would have to comply with the conflict-minerals rule, which covers products containing tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold [my emphasis].

NGO Global Witness is naturally dismayed with the SEC ruling. It should be pointed out here that the conflict minerals law will need to be implemented eventually to meet OECD standards. The point of the law, of course, is to discourage funding ongoing conflicts instead of caving in to powerful retailer's associations:

Global Witness is disappointed that the rule will allow companies to describe the origin of their minerals as ‘undeterminable’ for a period of two years – or four years for small companies.

“The minerals trade is fuelling violent conflict and human rights abuses in the eastern DRC and delays in implementing the law postpone the moment at which companies take responsibility for the impact of their purchases, jeopardising efforts to stop minerals funding conflict, and seriously undermining the aim of the law. By allowing companies to say ‘I don’t know where my minerals are from’, the regulators are effectively inviting issuers to evade all of the substantive measures required by the law. The incentive for companies to plead ignorance will be overwhelming,” says Global Witness.

Meanwhile, SEC staff made it clear that the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Devel- opment’s (OECD’s) five-step due diligence framework is the benchmark against which companies’ due diligence should be measured.

So this "grace period" may be one of obfuscation as dishonest firms simply say they cannot identify where their tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold comes from in cases where they do indeed come from conflict-ridden regions.That said, others even argue that the law may instead have the effect of depriving poor communities of their livelihoods due to overzealous policing.

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Honour Among Thieves, Somali Pirate Edition

Coming from one of the countries worse affected by maritime piracy, I tend not to romanticize incidences of ship hijacking in the Gulf of Aden. That said, it strikes me as remarkable how much more "professional" and "businesslike" Somali pirates have become. Just as banks of yesteryear used to have lavish premises replete with gilt and marble to symbolize the idea that they meant business and were here to stay, so too do modern-day pirates (no contemporary references to the state of the financial services industry intended) understand the value of symbolism. 

Accordingly, Reuters has a fascinating article describing how Somali pirates now have a grasp of business essentials such as marketing (i.e., presentation of ransom demands as a worthwhile "purchase"), accounting (ransom valuation of captured crew and vessels), and so forth:

[Pirate captain] Jamal provided the ship owners a breakdown of the value of their tanker, the oil it contained and also the worth of the crew (at least in his opinion), presenting a final demand figure for them to consider. "We will send to you after when we arrange something for the demanding ransom money and after when we finish the meeting among my group and resolve my problem," he wrote in the second page of the kidnap packet.

One expert in ransom negotiation situations said it was little surprise that Jamal and his colleagues were so well organized, their meager circumstances in one of the world's most strife-torn countries notwithstanding. "They want to get the money. If they present themselves and behave as someone who will live up to their commitment to give us the package in good condition, we are much more likely to go ahead and pay the ransom easily and efficiently," said Derek S.T. Baldwin, director of worldwide operations for IBIS International, which operates in 45 countries worldwide.

"If they present themselves as a non-structured group of disorganized loons they stand an awful lot better chance of having an extraction team show up on their front porch and shoot them," said Baldwin, an attorney by training whose firm has been involved in a number of ransom situations over the years.

All they need now are some PowerPoints and they'd be pretty much state-of-the-art. Are they not in some twisted sense SMEs or entrepreneurs? The dividing line is not quite what we think it is in parts of the world where the rule of law is non-existent. They are, after all, in it for the money and do come up with innovations.

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South Sudan Cuts Off Its Oil To Spite Its Economy

It seems like only yesterday that we were wishing the new nation of South Sudan all the best after it voted to create a new, independent republic. However, it probably wasn't long in coming that the tensions with Sudan (call it the old, "North" Sudan) resurfaced. You see, while many of the oil-rich parts of the old Sudan went to South Sudan, the problem is that South Sudan is landlocked. To access ports and from there export markets, it had to rely on the old pipelines which brought crude to the coast and ports of "North" Sudan. Fully aware of this situation, the latter has not been averse to holding South Sudan "hostage" with exorbitant transport fees for using these pipelines (lifelines?)

As we near South Sudan's first anniversary, its authorities have since the beginning of the year discontinued exports passing through "North" Sudan over a dispute involving transit fees. Which, in effect, cuts off its entire oil industry from the rest of the world for geographic reasons:

Brave or reckless, South Sudan's decision to shut down its oil production to protest the north has had disastrous consequences for its citizens. The country's economy came to a jarring halt in January, when it shut down oil production due to a trade dispute with Sudan. To make up for its own lost revenues from the split with South Sudan, Khartoum had been demanding exorbitant transit fees for the use of its pipelines and port, the only available route for South Sudan to export its oil. 

Anne Itto, Deputy Secretary of South Sudan's ruling party, the SPLM, says the south has refused to resume production until Sudan agrees to more reasonable terms. "Khartoum was asking $36 per drum, which is very unusual and is not practicable," said Itto. "If south Sudan ever accepts to pay such rent, it is like giving away our oil, as well." 

When the pumps came to a stop, South Sudan had lost the source of 98 percent of its annual revenue. Already one of the poorest nations in the world, ranking at the bottom of every list of human development, the government has announced austerity measures to cope with the loss. The Secretary-General of South Sudan's Chamber of Commerce Simon Akwei Deng, speaking at a debate sponsored by the BBC, says the shutdown has crippled the country's nascent private sector.

While debates over austerity are not uncommon in the developed world and most of the developing world, in South Sudan it's literally a matter of life and death as this impasse lingers and the government has essentially, well, sacrificed essentially its only cash cow:

[US Special Envoy Princeton] Lyman says nearly three million people in South Sudan are in need of food assistance, which is about 30 percent of the population. The United Nations has voiced concern that the government's austerity measures will further hurt the poorest of the poor, by cutting services and leaving citizens with less money to spend on basic needs. Humanitarian agencies have their hands full helping some 200,000 refugees that have fled to camps in the south to escape fighting in Sudan.

The controversial UN correspondent Matthew Lee suggests it is remarkable how well-received South Sudan playing a game of chicken with Khartoum is with UN bigwigs. True enough, rather unsurprising calls for more humanitarian assistance for South Sudan are in no small part the result of grievous damage the new republic has chosen to inflict on itself, with no compromise despite the unfortunate "hostage" situation:

One of them questioned how the UN could in good conscience put out a big consolidated humanitarian appeal for problems caused by a government choosing to forego revenue, arguably to see if it would hurt its neighbor more and cause regime change there.

South Sudan suggests that international infrastructure firms are willing to build it a pipeline which does not pass through "North" Sudan on its way to the coast. Chinese, perhaps? But, unanswered questions remain as to (1) the identity of this foreign firm or firms; (2) the nation willing to use its ports to accommodate South Sudan's oil exports; (3) the possibility of this new country in turn being able to hold South Sudan "hostage" alike Khartoum does should things turn sour; and most importantly, (4) how long such a pipeline will take to construct given that the South Sudanese are already in dire straits.

It's not a pretty picture, but it's partly the result of choices they've made. Importantly, the problems they are encountering now were foreseeable well in advance given less-than-cordial relations with "North" Sudan. It's a humanitarian disaster, albeit one which goes some way in demonstrating that while geography is not destiny, being a landlocked fledgling republic has significant drawbacks.

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Palace Coup? World Bank Vets Pick Okonjo-Iweala

News is becoming sparser as most of the Christian world slows for the Easter holidays. However, in the run-up to the selection of the next World Bank president which should happen in a fortnight or so, we've had ringing endorsements of Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. (See a previous post for further ruminations.) We begin with an interesting counterblast to the current climate of economist-phobia at development institutions post global financial crisis. While it may be trendy to put non-economists at these institutions, the Economist (surprise!) slams this trend in endorsing her as the best candidate for the job:

Okonjo-Iweala is an orthodox economist, which many will hold against her. But if there is one thing the world has discovered about poverty reduction in the past 15 years, it is that development is not something rich countries do to poor ones. It is something poor countries manage for themselves, mainly by the sort of policies that Ms Okonjo-Iweala has pursued with some success in Nigeria.

While I am nowhere near as partial to economists as a publication dedicated to them in name, I did enjoy the insinuation that the United States which encouraged World Bank lenders to avoid corruption was doing so by choosing its favoured candidate to yet again fill a top (international) job.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times seconded the motion, accentuating the positives of extensive work at the World Bank:

Its new leader should have a command of macroeconomics, the respect of leaders of both the funding and the funded countries, and the management skills to implement his or her vision. These requirements make Ms Okonjo-Iweala the best person for the role.

Having served as managing director under outgoing World Bank president, Robert Zoellick, she also has a unique knowledge of how the institution works. While one risk could be the temptation not to challenge the status quo, she might find it easier than other candidates to gain the respect of staff and build on Mr Zoellick’s legacy.   

More importantly for me, however, is that many World Bank veterans have come out in a strong show of support for Okonjo-Iweala. Lest you think that its employees don't matter, remember how the Ameriscum Paul Wolfowitz was eased out as World Bank president even during the Bush administration. From the Vanguard of Nigeria:

As the World Bank gets set to interview the three candidates vying for its presidency from April 9-11 before announcing its decision the following week, a group of former World Bank officials, including one-time chief economist, Francois Bourguignon, said it supported Nigerian Finance Minister, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s candidacy to become the lender’s president even as Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi said Nigeria’s nominee was the best candidate for World Bank top job.

The 39 former managers, in a letter to the bank’s members, cited Okonjo-Iweala’s “deep experience in international and national issues of economic management” and said she had the ability to increase the bank’s effectiveness. Okonjo-Iweala, who was a managing director at the bank until last August, “would hit the ground running and get things done from the start,” the letter said.

According to the former World Bank officials, “challenges for the future president range from international fundraising to brokering agreements on global issues and while all the three presidency candidates, including former Colombian Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo, have strong qualifications, Okonjo-Iweala’s skills cover the full spectrum of criteria. Uri Dadush, a former World Bank director of policy and one of the 39 signatories, provided a copy of the letter.

Before concluding I should also point out that an assortment of heterodox economists (including the LSE's own Robert Wade)--many from the Global South besides--signed on to a similar petition for the Colombian candidate Jose Antonio-Ocampo. Although they're both long shots given the history of the institution in question, Okonjo-Iweala is more of an insider to it and Ocampo an outsider.

Still, the IPE Zone comes down in favour of Okonjo-Iweala if previous merit is the criteria. Nevertheless, what's obviously fascinating about the succession race is that it not only pits vested Western interests against rising ones from the Global South but it is also a trial of sorts for mainstream economics' place in development practice. Go ask Jagdish Bhagwati.

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Tired of the World Bank? Enter BRICS Dev't Bank

You hoped that the IMF and the World Bank would reflect more of the changes in the world economy by giving more input and leadership to major emerging economies. But, as the IMF succession process proved and the current World Bank "search" (stitch-up is the more accurate term) is proving, Western dominance is still on the cards at these institutions. What can I say? Some people resist change. There has been much lip service from them about including new voices, but at the end of the day, nothing's really changed.

So, if you're tired of poor countries lending to rich countries for things other than what institutions like the IMF were designed for, what we may have here is a "league of their very own" solution. You can be sure that LDC observers with any awareness are unhappy about the IMF currently lending a majority of its funds to Europe. As it so happens, something on the agenda of the ongoing BRICS meetings in New Delhi concerns the creation of a development bank by developing nations for developing nations. (Note that it's the BRICS summit not just the BRICs summit after the inclusion of South Africa in 2010 in addition to Brazil, Russia, India and China.) From the Indo-Asian News Service:

A BRICs development bank will be very useful, particularly to Africa, but a major challenge that may come on its way is aligning the interest of the member countries, said experts. "Within the BRICS group, governments are seeking tangible areas of collaboration, clearly one is [a] development bank. The point of BRICS bank is a very noble venture," said Martyn Davies, CEO of the market research firm Frontier Advisory. "It will be very beneficial, particularly to the sub-Saharan Africa," Davies said at a seminar organised by his company in partnership with Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

The matter is on the agenda of the BRICS' -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- two-day summit in Delhi starting Wednesday. Davies said the main challenges in setting up a BRICS bank will be risk management and aligning the respective interest of the member countries. "Cash is not a problem," he added. State Bank of India's (SBI) Africa head Mathai Vaidyan said the idea is good, but it will be very difficult to arrive at a consensus.

It's a continuation of dicussions by various industry representatives about how investment among LDCs can be enhanced:

Tuesday's seminar themed "The Commercial Strategies of Emerging Markets and New Emerging Multinationals in Africa" was attended by senior bankers and business representatives from the BRICS nations.The meeting shared the experiences and challenges faced by companies from BRICS countries, as well as ideas on how the emerging markets can boost investment in Africa. "I think the challenge is the creation of efficient bureaucracy through which capital will be deployed into infrastructure development, particularly in Africa," Davies told Xinhua. The Africa head of a Brazilian company added: "If it matches the interests of all members, let's go for it."

There is a massive literature on Western nations using Bretton Woods institutions for their own objectives rather than development per se. Given that Western nations helped set them up, regional development banks alike the Asian Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and African Development Bank are not entirely free from this criticism either. So, why not an LDC development lender? Certainly these countries do not lack for investible funds at this point in time given that most are running sizable external surpluses.

That said, the political obstacles are formidable in terms of siting, coordination and supervision and so forth were they to push through with the BRICS Development Bank [BDB--you heard it here first; Jim O'Neill, eat your heart out!--or probably not]. Who's to say that these countries will by themselves be free from the bickering at the IMF and World Bank which is driving them to set up shop elsewhere?

I must also note that such plans are hardly unique. Witness the still missing in action Banco del Sur. Ah well, I suppose it's a start. May it lead to something concrete and useful--something noticeably lacking in the history of South-South cooperation.

UPDATE: Also see an earlier al-Jazeera article on the purported BRICS Development Bank.

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World Bank Boss: Kim, Okonjo-Iweala or Ocampo?

I'd like to say the competition to become the next World bank president is heating up if it weren't for the common understanding that it will be another American stitch-up. While I'd have preferred the term "whitewash," the White House has thrown those of us who are critical of Western domination of these institutions a curveball by nominating an Asian-American candidate in Jim Yong Kim. Thinking it over, I can offer a number of pros and cons. Starting with the good stuff I can think of--I am a charitable lad, yes...

1. Global health is one of the areas where multilateral development institutions have actually made significant strides. Disease prevention is usually a large-scale intervention, and it is here where top-down efforts have shown promise. Witness the eradication of smallpox and the near-eradication of river blindness for instance. Since Kim's global advocacy is more on TB and HIV/AIDS, the more tentative results there are not really indicative of a lack of skill but of the increased difficulty in addressing the illness at hand;
2. Becoming a university president--especially at a venerable Ivy League institution like Dartmouth--involves no small amount of political skill (Larry Summers notwithstanding);
3. It will be a welcome change to have a physician by training head the World Bank instead of yet another economist or political scientist;
4. It is also good that Jim Yong Kim is not a loyal party figure alike Zoellick and his American predecessors but rather someone who does not really come from the inner circles of US politics.

On the downside, though...

1. This "pick a non-Caucasian to silence the critics" strategy would work better even as a token if he came from an LDC. Remember, South Korea famously joined the OECD in 1996 just before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis a year after. We kicked it out of the G-77 after acceding to this rich country club, so he's not really someone who comes from today's Global South;
2. His post as a university president aside, he will need to juggle conflicting interests from rich countries wishing to keep their hegemony at the World Bank as is and poor ones that are interested in being more involved in global governance but have found it hard to be among the big boys. There is not much from his previous experience that may prepare him for the rough-and-tumble of development politics.

Let's now turn to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Nigerian who's put her name up for candidacy via her supporting countries' World Bank representative. Also there's Jose Antonio Ocampo, the Colombian candidate put forward by a number of Latin American nations. Alike the bid by the Mexican Agustin Carstens to replace the infamous Dominique Strauss-Kahn at the IMF, it's probably best not to take these two bids very seriously (unfortunately)...

1. The Jim Yong Kim ploy aside, the US shows no signs of breaking its stranglehold on World Bank leadership anytime soon, so both bids are forwarded more as "protest" votes;
2. Alike Carstens, both LDC candidates are hampered by iffy support from disunited developing countries. After all, they've again failed to rally around a single candidate. Alike the Americans with their blinders, those that have volunteered someone have chosen a person from their own region. Not much "third world solidarity" here, eh? United we stand, divided we fall it is once more;
3. Moreover, many other LDCs would probably be dissuaded from backing someone other than the US pick in justifiable fears of retribution from the West through vetoing future World Bank loans and grants;
4. What's more, many "realists" would prefer to just aim for the backup spots alike being a World Bank managing director (the #2s). Indonesia's Sri Mulyani Indrawati probably understands this glass ceiling more than most. Call it the Zhu Min strategy;
5. Okonjo-Iweala and Ocampo are hardcore development persons familiar with those working in this area and many LDC grandees. However, this status may actually detract from the idea of bringing in new blood in development work.

So in some (symbolic) ways Jim Yong Kim marks a real break as the American nominee--in terms of being a doctor by profession and an outsider to US politics. That said, these token gestures are unlikely to comfort the likes of yours truly since the guy probably knows who butters his bread when push comes to shove. At least U2's Bono was non-American. The more things change, the more things stay the same.

UPDATE: There is a lot of relevant material on the succession debate from the "World Bank President" site co-authored by my colleague Peter Chowla of the Bretton Woods Project.

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Mobile Phones 4 Everything, Water Security Edn

By now I'm probably known to longtime readers as the information and communication technology for development (ICT4D) skeptic guy due to my Foreign Affairs contribution casting doubt on the US state department's digital diplomacy efforts as well as the MIT Media Labs' One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative. Well, that's not entirely correct, I must say. For instance, I have been following the cutting-edge innovations in sending remittances through these very technologies. As with most things, ideas to harness ICT for development differ in the quality of execution. Many will fail, but some will succeed.

So it is with quite some interest that I read a new contribution in Global Policy concerning the use of mobile phones for water security in Africa, where several countries with the most extreme shortages of this valuable resource lie [click to enlarge image above]. Especially now when the finitude of water is becoming increasingly recognized, this previous resource benefits from being made more available in a timely manner. Not only are conflicts over water increasing, but the realities of climate change make it more important.

Hearteningly,many of the most advanced mobile telephony services are found in the African continent due more to necessity than anything else. Rob Hope, Tim Foster, Alex Money and Michael Rouse offer the following abstract and policy implications of their work:
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Water security aims to provide safe, reliable, affordable and sufficient water for people, agriculture, industry and ecosystems, subject to societal choices across related trade-offs and risks. Managing resource risks, delivering effective governance, promoting financial sustainability and achieving social equity are central to achieving water security. We explore how innovations in mobile communications have created an inclusive, secure and low cost architecture for financial and data flows to reduce risk and enhance water security. In Africa, water security challenges associated with climate extremes and population growth outstripping improved water services’ access are juxtaposed with its global lead in mobile commerce innovations, including mobile water payments. Market driven expansion of mobile network coverage and low cost, mobile handsets mean more Africans will be connected to mobile phone services than those receiving improved water services in 2012. The confluence of rapid mobile network expansion, mobile phone ownership, mobile water payments and smart metering technologies offer new policy pathways to water security to accelerate progress on sustainable, safe water access, particularly for those in the greatest need and those most difficult to reach. We chart emerging mobile water innovations in Africa and policy implications in the region and beyond.

Policy Implications

• Mobile communication innovations offer an inclusive, secure and low cost architecture for financial and data flows that can reduce or share risk to enhance water security.
• The confluence of mobile network coverage, mobile phone ownership, mobile water payments and smart water metering technologies has significant but uncharted potential to enhance water security.
• Innovations are being driven by the commercial interests of mobile network operators with the distributional impacts and implications yet to be evaluated or shaped by policy and governance regimes.
• Living in rural and remote areas may no longer be synonymous with a higher risk of water insecurity as mobile connectivity could permit innovative management models at scale

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At this point in time in the climate change game, all innovations of this sort that can actually address a significant problem are certainly welcome.

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Comrade Bob Mugabe and the Dictator Fun Club

I'm a bit tardy here (apologies), but better late than never. Name the chicken restaurant chain and I've probably patronized it before: Kentucky Fried Chicken, Chick Fil A, Kenny Rogers Roasters, El Pollo Loco and so forth. Nando's is in a unique position of being a very international chain that isn't American. As we learn, however, its cosmopolitan nature isn't always an advantage. I was flipping through a recent issue of the Economist when the TV advertisement of the South African chicken restaurant chain entitled 'Last Dictator Standing' came to my attention (I too have consumed their poultry products since they have many branches in England):

Insulting dictators ought to be safe, so long as you do not operate in the same country. Nando’s, a South African restaurant chain, forgot that with an ad showing a Robert Mugabe lookalike glumly alone at dinner (after many of his fellow despots had been deposed [and perhaps more importantly, dead]). He reminisces about happy days shooting water pistols with Muammar Qaddafi, playing in the sand with Saddam Hussein and riding a tank, “Titanic”-style, with Idi Amin. The ad was broadcast in South Africa, where Nando’s middle-class target audience found it hilarious. But Nando’s also has restaurants in Zimbabwe. Threats ensued. Fearing violence against its staff there, the ad was pulled.

To be more exact, political youth groups linked to Mugabe threatened to harm Nando's employees in Zimbabwean outlets. The ad was also broadcast not only in South Africa but throughout the continent via satellite TV. (You also can't insult the head of state in Zimbabwean law.) Still, the corporate social responsibility angle is quite obtuse given that the aggrieved party is not exactly an exemplar of good governance. With his penchant for hyperinflation in the economic realm and even more unpleasant things in the security one, Mugabe is not a sympathetic figure to say the least. That said, he has gradually become worse in true Anakin Skywalker - Darth Vader fashion.

My, er...enjoyment of this Nando's commercial compared to the more straightforward if even more politically incorrect dumb blonde ad is curtailed though despite its IR angle. There is this thing called the willing suspension of disbelief that is said to enable enjoyment of fiction. However, when the events being depicted vary too far from established facts, the cognitive dissonance becomes too severe to overcome.

And so it is with this ad to an extent. While I appreciate that singing karaoke is an Asian stereotype, it is chronologically impossible for Mugabe to have joined Chairman Mao in this activity as a fellow dictator. For, Comrade Bob only assumed power in 1980 when Mao died in 1976. The same qualifier holds for Idi Amin who was ousted in 1979. Besides, isn't Mao responsible for the Cultural Revolution which aimed to expunge harmful foreign influences alike karaoke? Even more surreal is having Comrade Bob play on a swing set with South African apartheid-era Prime Minister P.W. Botha [?!] Why would an erstwhile leader of the pan-African independence movement away from white rule be frolicking with one of its most odious proponents? I suppose it's what got the Zimbabwean pro-Mugabe crowd most in a frenzy about the ad more than anything else.

It's too bad Nando's isn't going to include Kim Il-Jong in a follow-up advert with all the controversy. Now that's a real contemporary of Comrade Bob's who's gone on to...I don't quite know where atheists of his sort go. Besides, why feature Chairman Mao instead of true contemporaries alike Zaire's Mobutu Sese Seko, the Philippines' Ferdinand Marcos, Chile's Augusto Pinochet or Panama's General Manuel Noriega--certainly recognizable figures to any international audience?

I guess the song gets it right, though:

Oh my friend we're older but no wiser
For in our hearts the dreams are still the same

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