Commercialism & Christmas in Non-Christian Societies

Thailand features Christmas elephants, f'rinstance

Your Asian correspondent--obviously Catholic with a name like "Emmanuel"--has always found it curious that some of the most extravagant Christmas pageantry can be found in predominantly non-Christian societies. With the exception of the Philippines and (tiny) Timor-Leste, that's practically everyone else in Asia--Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore...you name it. Spending your Christmas holidays in these metropoles and indeed pretty much elsewhere nowadays, you wouldn't even be able to tell that you weren't in a Christian country given the amount of Christmas decorations lining the streets. What's more, their habits of ornamentation and gift-giving usually are more lavish precisely because they are comparatively wealthier countries.

Remarkably, the increasingly cosmopolitan nature of any number of Middle East societies has resulted in a similar phenomenon. Witness even more gigantic Christmas trees in the lobbies of hotels and shopping malls of places alike Abu Dhabi or Dubai. The UAE, of course, is ruled by an Islamic monarchy. But, alike in the Far East, the Middle East has succumbed to similar temptations. As you would suspect, the influx of foreign commercial interests buttresses the natural inclination of expatriates to celebrate the holidays and memories of days gone by. From the Christian Science Monitor:

One curious trend in the global economy is how many countries with few Christians now enjoy aspects of Christmas – the giving of gifts, an exchange of cards, even singing “Last Christmas” by Exile [???--their words, not mine]. What other religion has had its holiday traditions transcend so many borders?

Christmas has become the world’s most widely celebrated religious holiday, even if it is more commercially exploited than religiously observed in non-Christian countries – and even if the Santa Claus fantasies overshadow the day’s real meaning: the coming of Christ to humanity.

To be sure, the spread of Christmas is driven in large part by retailers – and governments – trying to find new reasons to drum up consumer spending. (Halloween and Valentine’s Day are becoming popular, too.) In many Muslim countries, it is this materialistic aspect that is often decried by Islamic preachers. And sometimes, the Christian part gets lost in translation: Foreigners in Japan tell the tale of a Tokyo department store that once decorated a window with a Santa Claus on a cross.

The obvious growth market in a globalized era is the purportedly godless society of the People's Republic of China:

The most explosive growth in celebrating a secular Christmas has been in China. Since the 1990s, the Communist Party has loosened its control over this “Western holiday.” Urban youth have embraced it, seeing Christmas as an opportunity to give gifts, celebrate with friends, and tie up a romance with a wedding. Stores often record their biggest sales around Christmas. Many Chinese can be seen wearing reindeer antlers or Santa hats. Some give specially wrapped apples as gifts (the Chinese word for apple sounds like “Silent Night.”)

As long as Chinese see only the commercial aspects, the government may not worry about the religious meaning. Still, in 2006 a group of university students started an online petition to boycott Christmas, claiming it is a Western plot to erode Chinese culture.

It's a lot of lavishness for a holiday meant to celebrate the coming of a person born in the stables, but I do not necessarily scoff at these practices. During a time when so-called Christian Europe still has a holiday season but has largely forgotten the "Christian" bit retains the "holiday" part, who am I to say the secular celebrants are "wrong"? The IPE of Christmas is simply that its European-based lore is more suitable for commercial exploitation than any other holiday of the major religions. If the Europeans are increasingly secular but still observe Christmas--at least its more overtly commercial aspects--then who am I to judge others who do the same? At any rate, a Merry Christmas to one and all. Somehow, I know you're doing your bit to prop up the consumer spending portion of GDP.

Burj Al Arab, Christmas 2009

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Aid (Not Death) from Above: Drones for Disaster Relief

Some of these things don't come with missiles but with goodwill

The American habit of using drones on supposed "terrorist" targets that frequently results in killing civilians instead--"collateral damage"--has outraged a significant part of the civilized world. Former US President Jimmy Carter criticizes their use as a gross human rights violation. Meanwhile, the UN General Assembly only yesterday passed a resolution aimed at limiting their use as erstwhile American allies in the global war on terror alike Afghanistan and Pakistan have sought to limit myriad incursions in their airspace for the purpose of raining death from the skies.

Despite the quite frankly horrid purposes the Yanks use them for, drones are a neutral technology that can be used for good or ill. An unmanned aircraft is merely in the hands of those controlling it, no? Somewhat encouragingly, a former student of mine has written an interesting article for Devex--the website for development professionals--discussing how drones may be used for disaster relief instead. In the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan devastating large swathes of the Philippines, this technology has been used with some success in the leveled city of Tacloban:

More than a month after Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines, operations on the ground remain in the relief and response phase instead of rehabilitation and recovery, with several areas still unreached by aid groups and comprehensive damage assessment still unfinished. To address these needs, several NGOs on the ground in Tacloban, the “ground zero” of the catastrophe, have been using unmanned aerial vehicles to further improve their operations — something they hope would be a standard in disaster risk reduction efforts in the future.

But can drones truly become standard operation procedure in humanitarian crises? Experts consulted by Devex believe so, although they do admit mass use of these devices will have to overcome serious challenges, like their relatively high price [elsewhere in the article it says the tab runs to $55,000 for each operating Huginn X-1] and legal issues over privacy and sovereignty rights...

In Tacloban, Danish firm Danoffice IT, which has been providing drones to U.N. agencies and several NGOs involved in the relief and response operations, said faster disaster assessment means faster disaster response, which, ultimately, saves lives. “The idea is that you have a drone and you deploy it quickly to have an assessment and overview immediately. It means that first, you save some time. After a disaster, time is very important because time has a link to life,” Denis Kerlero De Rosbo, Danoffice IT corporate social responsibility and marketing head, told Devex. “If you move quicker, you will save more lives and resources."

How, then, can drones be used to assist disaster relief?

1. Immediate assessment.

The first few hours after disasters are the most crucial moments for disaster response, particularly in search and rescue operations. But poor assessment of the affected areas can significantly reduce the effectiveness of these operations and even endanger aid workers.

Drones can be deployed for immediate assessment of disaster situations, providing detailed information to first-responders like local governments and humanitarian groups. Information is key to disaster response and mobilization.

2. Strategic planning.

Following the initial assessment phase, the information gathered will prove helpful in crafting an effective strategic plan in responding to disasters.

Scores of international aid groups and partner governments have continually extended their help to the country given the scale of devastation Haiyan brought — including the information gathered by the drones in the plans will make relief and response operations more effective.

3. Search and rescue operations.

A month after the onslaught of Haiyan, dead bodies are still being recovered in disaster areas, with some fearing a number of these people died days after the storm hit due to lack of aid.

The Huginn X1 drone, according to De Rosbo, is equipped with high-definition video and is capable of providing a live feed for the controller, making assessment and response real-time. The device can also produce thermal images, essential for finding people alive during the search and rescue operations.

4. Protecting aid workers.

Another very important area where drones can be very useful in disaster response is ensuring the security and safety of aid workers.

Humanitarians deployed on the ground are not immune to the kinds of hazards disaster victims face. They are humans too, and susceptible to these threats...Days after the storm, reports of looting in disaster areas were rampant due to hunger and desperation, while a number of local rebel groups wreaked havoc in the ravaged communities. Drones can help identify these threats.

More information on the Philippine operation is available from the site of application provider Danoffice IT. (Alike the drone manufacturer, it's obviously Danish.) It's very interesting stuff. Going forward, using drones for disaster relief may help give them a good name elsewhere in the developing world. 

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Russia's Price for Buying Off Ukraine: $15B

Put 'er there, Vlad, my country's yours for $15 billion

Let us update this strange tale of Ukraine. Having told his opponents to in effect get lost since they didn't win any elections or succeed in gaining a vote of no-confidence, President Viktor Yanukovych headed to the Kremlin to speak to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. What is the price of fealty to Russia? Gulf Cooperation Council bigwigs bought off Egypt for $9.9 billion (so far)--$5B from the Saudis and $4.9B from the Emiratis to wean it off the upstart Qataris. Meanwhile, Yanukovych was able to wangle a $15B bailout from Russia to buy that much worth of Ukrainian sovereign debt over the next two years. Not bad, eh?

Ukraine sealed $15 billion of Russian financing and a one-third discount on energy imports from its neighbor as anti-government protesters in Kiev demanded to know what President Viktor Yanukovych had ceded in return. Russia will buy government debt this year and next and will cut the price it charges for natural gas to $268.5 per 1,000 cubic meters, President Vladimir Putin said today after meeting Yanukovych in Moscow. 

Ukrainian debt--certainly more than mildly distressed at this point--is slightly more relaxed as a result:

The yield on Ukrainian dollar bonds due 2023 plunged more than 1 percentage point to 8.833 percent as of 7:11 p.m. in Kiev, the lowest since June 17, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield on government debt due 2014 fell more than 6 percentage points to 15.193 percent. Putin said the financing is being provided in light of “the problems of the Ukrainian economy linked to the world financial crisis, and to support the budget of the Ukrainian government.” Trade restrictions on Ukrainian goods will also be lifted. 

However, the opposition may be further inflamed by the Russian bailout. Alike Saudi Arabia and the UAE lending, Russia lending is not exactly a "seal of good housekeeping" alike that granted by the IMF which opens doors to unbiased lending from more impartial sources:

“The shift towards Moscow risks inflaming the anti-government protests,” Capital’s Chief Emerging Markets Economist Neil Shearing said by e-mail. “While a deal with Russia was always likely to offer the best terms on short-term financing, closer ties with the EU were more likely to provide an anchor for the structural reforms needed to reinvigorate Ukraine’s faltering economy.”

Ukraine’s opposition had planned a rally for this evening and protesters flocked to Independence Square on hearing news of the Russian agreements. There were about 30,000 people there as of 7:30 p.m., according to The RBC-Ukraine news service. The Interior Ministry put the turnout at about 8,000.

“What did Yanukovych promise in exchange?” said 57-year-old Vera from Kiev, who declined to give her last name. “Nobody gives anything without a reason. Now we have only questions.” Opposition leaders addressing the crowds, who’ve blocked central Kiev since the government pulled out of a planned European Union association agreement, were similarly skeptical.  “I know only one place where there’s free cheese -- a mouse trap,” said Arseniy Yatsenyuk, head of jailed ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s party. “We want to hear what he gave in return.” 

Your country's been sold, my friend. Collusion between Yanukovych and Putin reminds me of a gangster movie (not "gangsta," homey) with a dodgy plot and poor acting. Except in this case it's true-to-life. Most importantly, I hardly think it's solved its balance-of-payments issues by getting into bed with the country that's done quite a lot to exacerbate its situation by blocking trade and threatening to cut off gas supplies during winter. First, there's no guarantee this lifeline will be continued if Ukraine shows signs of disobedience. Second, Ukraine's habit of burning foreign exchange is hardly stopped by a lender with many strings attached showing up.

But hey, they voted for this guy, right?

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Boxers-Turned-Politicians: Pacquiao vs Klitschko

Fighting Russkies, Striking a Blow for the EU

If this were an actual fight, it would be a grossly unfair one since Manny Pacquiao stands 1.69m tall and weighs 65kg whereas Vitali Klitschko--older brother of fellow heavyweight champion Wladimir of Hayden-Panettiere-is-my-girl fame--is 2.01m tall and weighs 110kg. However, this comparison is grossly unfair in other respects of political consequence. In terms of celebrity, the Filipino boxer is far better known competing in the welterweight division where the glamor, money and attention in prizefighting is now concentrated, whereas the heavyweight division lacks compelling personalities. Yet, Vitali Klitschko makes up for the lack of star power with brain power since, like his brother, he has a PhD. Manny Pacquiao famously dropped high school to start fighting since his family needed the money.

I bring up this comparison because the Klitschko brothers are among the most prominent figures in the current campaign to force Ukranian President Viktor Yanukovych to ink a free trade deal with the European Union. Problematically for the brothers and their prospects for Ukraine politics, both have lived virtually all their professional lives outside their homeland in Hamburg, Germany then La La Land, California. Unlike Congressman Manny Pacquiao, they do not simply go abroad to ply their trade and then return home. Nevertheless, the WSJ op-ed pages recently ran a rather fawning feature on Klitschko the Elder as a champion of freedom and free markets (hey, would you expect anything else given the source?)

Yet Mr. Klitschko stands out among the opposition, and not just because of his breathtaking physical size. He's the one new face in a crowd of familiar political mediocrities. He has a Ph.D. in physical sciences, hence his nickname, Dr. Ironfist. His considerable fortune earned from boxing reassures people about the sincerity of his commitment to fight corruption and resist temptation...

He has broken out in the polls, leading Mr. Yanukovych in a head-to-head match, which may come sooner than the presidential election due in early 2015. The government fears him enough that earlier this fall it fiddled with the residency requirement for the presidency, patently to stop him, since he had trained and lived in Germany for most of the previous decade. Mr. Klitschko says the retroactive legal change won't hold up in court, but in another context notes that the judges are in Mr. Yanukovych's pocket.

"In these hard days, the moral support from friends of democracy is very important," says Mr. Klitschko. While the nationalists in Maidan [Square--protest site] play up Russian meddling, he is always careful to insist that the fight isn't so much about personalities or geopolitics as about values—democracy, human rights, the rule of law. In short, Europe.

It's all very anti-Russian if that's your sort of thing and imagine the Iron Curtain still hangs across Eastern Europe. As the proprietor of the IPE Zone, however, I am more interested in how these two pugilistic politicians regard trade. As I mentioned before, Manny Pacquiao sponsored the passage of trade exemptions for Philippine textile exports to the US that would have likely violated WTO strictures [1, 2]. Meanwhile, Klitschko is championing a preferential trade agreement with the EU. It's not necessarily trade-positive--trade diversion and all that--but the sentiment is there. Who wins in this respect? I'd say Klitschko by a technical knock-out since the Philippine congressman's proposed deal never made it off the ground.

At any rate, we'll probably have more time to learn about both fighters' views on trade since Vitali Klitschko now suggests he will run for the presidency in 2015. Pacquiao meanwhile has long set his sights on the Philippines' highest office.

On education grounds, I prefer the guy with the PhD, but I'm stuck being in the country with the high school dropout.

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World's Smallest Currency Union: Caribbean Challenges

Yes, Virginia, these dollars bear Queen Elizabeth II's image

The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) is the world's smallest currency union among the four existing worldwide. The European Monetary Union (EMU) is known by all, whereas the other two are in Africa. What makes the ECCU doubly interesting is that it is pegged to the US dollar. In fact, it predates the EMU by half a century, although it changed the currency it is being pegged to from GBP to USD halfway through:

The OECS members share a common currency, the Eastern Caribbean dollar, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1976 at EC$2.70=US$1, and was pegged to the British pound at EC$4.80=£1 from 1950 to 1976. Prior to the recent inception of the European Central Bank, the ECCB was one of only three common central banks in the world and the only one where the member countries have pooled all their foreign reserves, the convertibility of the common currency is fully self-supported, and the parity of the exchange rate has not been changed.

Now, there's thought-provoking stuff over at the IMF site concerning the challenges faced by ECCU. Overall, it makes economic sense for micro-sized economies to band together currency-wise:

In terms of the benefits, the small size of these countries means that the currency arrangement allows them to take advantage of scale economies. It also allows them to diversify risk. This means that if one country gets hit by an external shock or natural disaster, the other countries can pool resources and deal with the shock more effectively.

Again, because of their size, these islands can provide, at the regional level, more cost-effective public services. So that is a major benefit. What also matters a great deal is when the union speaks with one voice the countries can be better represented at the global level. 

That said, it is subject to the same sorts of problems the Eurozone faces:

Interestingly enough, the ECCU is actually a microcosm of the European Economic and Monetary Union, since the ECCU has also faced rising fiscal deficits, unsustainable debt levels in a number of states, a lack of fiscal integration, and challenges in parts of the financial sector that can undermine the stability of this union. As illustrated by the European experience, overcoming these challenges is particularly difficult in monetary unions. 

What can I say? God save the queen--and the East Caribbean Dollar

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World's #2: Yuan Overtakes Euro in Trade Finance

Trade finance is a somewhat arcane area despite its obvious importance to keeping world trade afloat. To make a long story short, a loan taken out by a trading firm for an international transaction is known as a "letter of credit." [LC] In effect, the lending bank's creditworthiness substitutes for the debtor's, allowing the counterparty to be assuaged regarding credit risk.

In recent times, the Chinese yuan or renminbi has come on like gangbusters as more and more of these instruments are denominated in RMB. Reflecting China's emergence as the world's largest trading nation in merchandise, a significant minority of the world's letters of credit are now in RMB. In fact, it has now reached a milestone of overtaking the vaunted Euro in this application in the month of October of this year:

China’s yuan overtook the euro to become the second-most used currency in global trade finance after the dollar this year, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication [SWIFT]. The currency had an 8.66% share of letters of credit and collections in October [2013], compared with 6.64% for the euro, Swift said in a statement Tuesday. China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany and Australia were the top users of yuan in trade finance, according to the Belgium-based financial- messaging platform.

So the dollar remains far and away the largest prominent currency in trade finance, but keep in mind where the yuan came from as late as January 2012 when it held less than a 2% share. Moreover, the appeal of the currency is coming on strong outside of China:

“It’s true that overseas exporters are using the renminbi more as the contract currency to increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of goods or services sold to China,” said Cynthia Wong, the Hong Kong-based head of emerging-market trading for Singapore and Hong Kong at Societe Generale SA.

That said, the Chinese currency still has a long way to go in terms of becoming a vehicle currency for all sorts of payments and being widely exchanged one in forex markets:

The Chinese currency ranked No. 12 for transactions in the global payments system in October, unchanged from the previous month, according to Swift figures. Payment value for the currency rose 1.5% that month, less than the 4.6% growth for all currencies, the Swift data showed. That saw the yuan’s market share drop to 0.84% from 0.86% in September.

Daily yuan transactions surged to $120 billion in April from $34 billion in 2010, making it the ninth most-traded currency in the world, according to a September report by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.

So there's still a long way to go in terms of China allowing further capital account openness and market-trading for the yuan to become a legitimate rival to the dollar and the euro. Yet, the demand is likely there--especially for those who regularly trade with mainland China. That the currency is steadily appreciating is a further bonus to those who wish to hold it. To non-mainland residents, that is not an inconsequential draw:

The yuan has appreciated 2.3% against the greenback this year, the best performance in Asia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg...“I’m not surprised as cross-border trades between China and Hong Kong have been quite dominantly denominated in yuan,” Raymond Yeung, a Hong Kong-based senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said by phone today. “Yuan trades usually increase when there are strong expectations for yuan appreciation.”

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I Wanna Riot...In Singapore [?!]

@#$% the Police, Singapore Edition

Singapore has acquired a reputation for being squeaky-clean to the point of being antiseptic. It is particularly famous for two things in this respect: banning bubble gum in public that can litter surroundings and caning juvenile delinquents alike the Yankee brat kid Michael Fay [whappack!] In reality, though, there are tensions bubbling under the carefully stage-managed facade. There were race riots between ethnic Chinese and Malays in 1964 and 1969 whose records time has not erased. In their wake, Singapore has been at pains to level the playing field for all three major ethnic groups (including those of Indian ethnic descent) by, for instance, having a more diverse civil service, but things are never quite perfect.

Like many Asian nations, Singapore is highly inequitable and is becoming more and more so. Its Gini coefficient stands at 0.478. At the same time, the locals' very low birth rate results in few Singaporeans left to do blue-collar jobs...such as construction. Hence the elements for this year's sudden outburst as an Indian migrant construction worker was struck down by a wayward bus, resulting in that ever-so-rare event: a riot in Singapore.

A crowd of about 400 foreign workers, angered by a fatal road accident, set fire to vehicles and attacked police and emergency services workers late Sunday in Singapore's ethnic Indian district, injuring at least 18 people in a rare riot in the city-state

Police and eyewitnesses say the riot, the first major outburst of public violence here in more than four decades, started at about 9:23 p.m. local time (1323 GMT) after a bus hit and killed an unnamed 33-year-old Indian man in the Little India neighborhood, prompting large groups of South Asian workers to attack the bus with sticks and garbage bins.

Authorities quelled the violence before 11 p.m. after deploying 300 police officers to the scene, including its riot-control squad and Gurkha unit, police officials said in a news briefing early Monday, adding that officers didn't use any firearms to end the riot...

Police officials said 10 officers were hurt, none seriously, while the bus driver involved in the fatal accident—a Singaporean—was hospitalized. Five vehicles were burned—including three police vehicles, an ambulance and a motorcycle, the Civil Defense Force said. Several other vehicles—including police, civil defense, and privately owned cars—also were damaged, officials said...

The role of migrant workers has come under scrutiny:

The riot has sparked concerns of festering unrest amid the large foreign workforce, numbering about 1.3 million as of June, in this island state of 5.3 million people. In recent years, some foreign laborers—particularly low-pay unskilled workers in construction—have resorted to protests against alleged exploitation by employers, including a rare and illegal strike last year by about 170 public-bus drivers hired from China.

There is also, unfortunately, an element of racial profiling

Even so, police would "pay extra attention not just to Little India, but also to foreign-worker dormitories and known places of congregation, moving forward," Police Commissioner Ng Joo Hee said at the briefing. Police officials said they were treating the incident as a case of "rioting with dangerous weapons," an offense that carries penalties including up to 10 years' jail, as well as caning.

Good ol' caning; would this be Singapore without it? Yes, Singapore is highly inequitable, but its claim to fame has been different races living in relative harmony in recent years. I guess the seams are beginning to show once more as inequality becomes more evident based on racial differences. Then again, demographic realities probably mean that flashpoints of this sort will continue to occur in the near future, especially as income and racial divides reinforce each other.

This ain't Disneyland, folks.

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